Published Articles
Econometric Tests of American College Football's Conventional Wisdom
Revised Version of NBER Working Paper No. 13596
Forthcoming, Applied Economics
Profile of Research in OSU Alumni Magazine, 2008
Abstract: College football fans, coaches, and observers have adopted a set of beliefs about how college football poll voters behave. I document three pieces of conventional wisdom in college football regarding the timing of wins and losses, the value of playing strong opponents, and the value of winning by wide margins. Using a unique data set with 25 years of AP poll results, I test college football’s conventional wisdom. In particular, I test (1) whether it is better to lose early or late in the season, (2) whether teams benefit from playing stronger opponents, and (3) whether teams are rewarded for winning by large margins. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that (1) it is better to lose later in the season than earlier, (2) AP voters do not pay attention to the strength of a defeated opponent, and (3) the benefit of winning by a large margin is negligible. I conclude by noting how these results inform debates about a potential playoff in college football.
Economies of Scale in the Household: Puzzles and Patterns from the American Past
NBER Working Paper No. 13869
Forthcoming, Economic Inquiry
Abstract: Household economies of scale arise when households with multiple members share public goods, making larger households better off at lower per capita expenditures. While estimates of household economies of scale are critical for measuring income and living standards, we do not know how these scale economies change over time. I use American household expenditure surveys to produce the first comparable historical estimates of household scale economies. I find that scale economies changed significantly from 1888 to 1935 for all expenditure categories considered (food, clothing, entertainment, and housing), but not all trends in scale economies are consistent with theoretical predictions. I use these historical estimates of household scale economies to resolve several theoretical and empirical puzzles in the literature. I find that existing explanations for puzzles in the household economies of scale literature do not hold in the past. As such, our notions about household economies of scale must be reassessed in light of this historical evidence.
South Africa's Post-Apartheid Two-Step: Social Demands versus Macro Stability
American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings) 99 (2): 275-281.
Abstract: During Apartheid, there was little need for redistributional policies or to borrow for public works since the vast majority of the population was undeserved. With the arrival of a representative democracy in 1994, however, South Africa faced a unique problem-- providing new and improved public services for the majority of its citizens while at the same time ensuring that filling this void would not undermine macroeconomic stability. Over the past fifteen years, policy makers have achieved macrostability, but progress on social needs has been below expectations and South Africa continues to lag behind its peers. This paper reviews the progress made so far and examines the challenges ahead for the incoming new administration. The results from this study suggest an increase in skill formation as a solution to the policy dilemma of fullfilling social demand while maintaining macrostability.
Are Engel Curve Estimates of CPI Bias Biased?
Historical Methods 42 (3): 97-110.
Abstract: A recent literature has advanced the use of Engel curves to estimate overall CPI bias. In this paper, I show that the methodology is sensitive to the modeling of household demography. Existing estimates of CPI bias do not account for the changing effect of household size on budget shares, and this can lead to omitted variable bias. Since the effect of household size on demand changes over time the drift in Engel curves attributed to CPI bias is partially explained by this effect. My estimates of the annual rate of CPI bias from 1888 to 1935 are changed by at least 25%, and usually more than 50%, once the changing effect of household size is accounted for.
The Transformation of Hunger: The Demand for Calories Past and Present
The Journal of Economic History 69 (2): 388-408.
Abstract: According to conventional income measures American and British industrial workers in the nineteenth century were two to four times as wealthy as those in developing countries today. Estimated calorie income elasticities of American and British industrial workers based on the 1888 Cost of Living Survey are greater than calorie elasticity estimates for developing countries today—yesterday’s wealthy workers were much hungrier than today’s poor. The result is robust to numerous criticisms. Using the Engel curve implied by the calorie elasticities, I derive new income estimates for developing countries that are six to ten times greater than those using traditional methods.
Health, Human Capital, and African American Migration before 1910
Explorations in Economic History 46 (2): 169-185.
Abstract: This is the first paper to document the effect of health on the migration propensities of African Americans in the Nineteenth Century. Using both IPUMS and the Colored Troops Sample of the Civil War Union Army Data, I estimate the effects of literacy and health on the migration propensities of African Americans from 1870 to 1910. I find that literacy and health shocks were strong predictors of migration and the stock of health was not. There were differential selection propensities based on slave status—former slaves were less likely to migrate given a specific health shock than free blacks. Counterfactuals suggest that as much as 35% of the difference in the mobility patterns of former slaves and free blacks is explained by differences in their human capital, and more than 20% of that difference is due to health alone. Overall, the selection effect of literacy on migration is reduced by one-tenth to one-third once health is controlled for. The low levels of human capital accumulation and rates of mobility for African Americans after the Civil War are partly explained by the poor health status of slaves and their immediate descendants.
Nutrition and Well-Being in the Late Nineteenth Century
The Journal of Economic History Vol. 66, No. 2 (2006)
Food, Nutrition, and Substitution in the Late Nineteenth Century
Explorations in Economic History Vol. 43 No. 3 (2006)
Is the Calorie Distribution Log-Normal? Evidence from the Nineteenth Century
Historical Methods Vol. 39, No. 3 (2006)